The Odds Were against Joe Lhota

debateWith the mayoral election looming in the second week of November, Joe Lhota was still expressing confidence he can beat Bill de Blasio on Election Day. Recent polls disagree: Lhota is given a paltry 23 percent of the likely voters while de Blasio had 64 percent. In a city that is largely Democrats, this may seem unremarkable to some, but New Yorkers tend to vote across party line in major local elections, as the last two mayors proved.

Newsday reports that the odds of Lhota coming out on top are unlikely. Why is New York City so resistant to him?

According to many political writers, it is for many reasons. The most obvious is that he is a Republican, not well known and not very charismatic — making it hard to get to know him. Additionally his recent campaign has been fear-driven; his attack ads don’t seem well received. New York City is not the place it was in the 1980s, nor is it in living in the immediate fear of the attack  on the World Trade Center. What an observant New Yorker may notice is that two of the photos used in this ad were from Mayor Bloomberg’s time in office thus making the ad almost irrelevant.

His time in charge at the MTA is a factor as well.  Though his response after Hurricane Sandy was admirable, those acts seem to have receded in the minds of straphangers unhappy about fare hikes.  The MTA is not the average New Yorker’s  favorite part of government.

Political upsets are possible, but in this case Lhota  may need to get ready for the impending he faces on election day.

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